Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,431,574$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,705,589.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,705,589.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $136,466$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,616.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127,616.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,246,010$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,486$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(8.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{438,475.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.7)}}\) (asimptote \(438,475.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,327$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,290.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,329$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,350$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,460.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.5)}}\) (asimptote \(106,460.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,845$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,683.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,683.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,792$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,096$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,618.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 174.5)}}\) (asimptote \(271,618.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $960$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(45.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,442.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 203.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,442.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,469$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,305$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,297.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 128.0)}}\) (asimptote \(96,297.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $910$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,001.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,001.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,261$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $28,579$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(245 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,977.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 118.2)}}\) (asimptote \(60,977.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $789$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,703.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 194.3)}}\) (asimptote \(13,703.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,667$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,872$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(250 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,027.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 115.3)}}\) (asimptote \(62,027.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,302$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(11.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,804.8}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 91.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,804.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,117$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,303$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(191 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,054.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(32,054.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $278$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,397.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 133.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,397.4\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,106$ on 2020-07-14
